Are They Really About To Say Bottoms Up?

The alcohol guidelines are getting a long-overdue update, but who will benefit? Us or Big Alcohol?

The U.S government says the darnedest things.

Leaks coming from HHS over the last week are prepping the media, and the alcohol industry, for a monumental change to longstanding alcohol consumption guidelines. In an exclusive to Reuters, three unnamed sources familiar with the matter, suggested that the updated guidelines will eliminate the language that’s been in place since 1990 of two drinks per day for men and one drink per day for women. Reuters, along with a dozen other publications who ran the story, was quick to call it a big win for Big Alcohol. I say, not so fast.

The sources confirmed what I’ve been expecting all year—a shift from daily dosage messaging, but what exactly are they replacing it with?

The alcohol industry and its shareholders seem to think a free-for-all is on the table, that an RFK Jr. led HHS is going to simply adopt the industry’s motto of Drink Responsibly and tell the American public to practice moderation. My question: In what world?

Certainly not in this one.

2025 began with former surgeon general, Dr. Vivek Murthy, releasing a report on the causal link between alcohol consumption and seven types of cancer. Murthy went a step further, calling for cancer warning labels to be added to alcohol bottles in light of new research. His advisory coming just days before the ICCPUD, one of two committees tasked with publishing a report on alcohol and health to inform the 2025-2030 guidelines, was released. This report took a harsher stance against alcohol than the industry-sponsored National Academies report, finding that even moderate consumption within current dietary guidelines posed health risks.

I wrote lengthy piece about the process of revising the dietary guidelines, the history of Big Tobacco and why that’s relevant now, the controversy surrounding scientists involved on both committees submitting reports, and how a connection to a disgraced mogul’s freak-off parties have exposed an alcohol industry giant. You can read that here.

Let’s forget for a moment that precedent has been set for an overhaul to booze messaging and instead look at the cultural sea change already in motion.

People are drinking less. The non-alcoholic beverage sector has exploded and non-alcoholic beer is set to become the second highest selling category overall, only behind lagers. The sober-curious and modern sobriety movements are mainstream, with celebrities like Tom Holland and Bella Hadid opening up about their own choice to live a sober lifestyle and launching NA brands or collaborating with existing ones to expand their reach. People are opting for run clubs over nightclubs. The common reason folks are giving for ditching the sauce? Wellness.

The buzz is starting to wear off and people are growing skeptical of a product that leaves them tired, anxious, and unable to connect in a real way. The pendulum that swung towards dangerous over-consumption during the pandemic has swung just as far in the other direction. The stage is set perfectly for a new narrative and new research deserves its place in the conversation.

The new guidelines could come down as soon as this week and while I understand how the recent leaks could signal to alcohol execs that the new language will be in their favor, especially considering the millions of dollars they’ve spent lobbying congress over the past two years on the matter, I’m holding out for a twist.

It’s possible that the sources who spoke to Reuters last week left out a significant portion of the language. Perhaps, they are removing the daily limit recs because we are going to see something more akin to Canada’s stance, that there is no truly safe amount of alcohol and 2-3 drinks per week is a better guide. Maybe, they’ve been allowing congress one last opportunity to cash in on their lobbying relationship with Big Alcohol and have intentionally withheld the full breadth of the revision to keep the peace, buy some time.

I’m fully aware that this could be my own wishful thinking, that I live in a bubble or an echo chamber, and the probability of our government flipping the script on booze may not be high. Still, the circumstances are right for it. I do not believe that a sane HHS would deliver alcohol consumption guidelines that do not address a causal link to cancer. I do not believe we are going to go backwards and completely gloss over the monumental shift we’ve seen from the medical community and society at large.

I’ll be here either way. It’s difficult to slip horrible policy by a sober woman.